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C. Nicolis (1992)

Probabilistic Aspects of Error Growth in Atmospheric Dynamics

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 118(505):553-568.

A probabilistic approach accounting for the variability of error growth in the atmosphere is developed and applied to an idealized low-order atmospheric circulation model. Error growth in a single-realization, ensemble-averaged error versus time and the time-dependent as well as the asymptotic probability distribution of errors are determined. A wide dispersion around the mean is found, showing clearly the inadequacy of a description that is limited to averaged properties only. A self-consistent one-variable, two-parameter model of error dynamics is constructed in the form of a stochastically driven logistic equation, and the results are shown to be in good quantitative agreement with the simulation of the full equations. A generalization to more realistic atmospheric models is also outlined.



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